I know this is not what fans of the New England Patriots want to hear, but it’s time to face the future: Tom Brady is going to the Los Angeles Chargers.
All the evidence points west. First let’s look at the local angles: he and wife Gisele Bundchen have put their house in Brookline on the market, his guru Alex Guerrero put his house on the market, he asked the Patriots not to give him the franchise tag last year, and owner Robert Kraft granted him this wish. Brady’s relationship with coach Bill Belichick has been frosty in recent years, and Belichick has reportedly dreamed of winning a Super Bowl without Brady, further cementing his legacy as the greatest coach in NFL history.
Now let’s look at the Chargers angle: they are moving into a new stadium this coming season, one which they will be sharing with the Rams. They were required, as past of the deal with the Rams, to sell PSLs, or personal seat licenses, which only puts more pressure on them to make a big splash in free agency and sign a superstar who will attract ticket-buyers. Their former franchise quarterback, Philip Rivers, has moved to Florida and officially parted ways with the team. Brady is from California, and Bundchen, being a supermodel, is unlikely to oppose moving to the West Coast where so much of her industry is located.
It’s possible that Brady wanted to finish his career with either the Patriots or the San Francisco 49ers, the team he grew up rooting for, but Belichick has seemingly blocked both of these paths – the first through his behind-the-scenes opposition to Brady being re-signed, and the second through trading quarterback Jimmy Garroppolo to the 49ers in 2017.
Money – as usual – is an issue as well. The Patriots and Tom Brady have an expiring contract that spreads out “dead money” – money that will be owed to Brady next year regardless of where he goes – to the tune of $13 million. Kraft has previously stated that he does not want to pay the penalty for going over his salary cap, so signing Brady to a new contract at market value, which could be roughly $25 to $30 million a year, simply doesn’t add up for Kraft.
Brady has said he wants to play until age 45. He will be 43 at the beginning of next season, so it’s likely he will seek a three-year deal in the range of $75 to $90 million or more, and given what other, less accomplished quarterbacks have been paid in the NFL, he could get it. There are only a handful of teams with a need at quarterback and the “cap space,” or budget, to pay a once in a generation star like Brady. The Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins are two other potential options, but one argument against them is Brady’s reported reluctance to return to Gillette Stadium in an opponent’s uniform next season. Both the Raiders and Dolphins will be playing in Foxborough this fall.
One team who won’t be playing there? The Los Angeles Chargers.
